A new year means that, like all of The Times’s correspondents scattered around our 31 international bureaus, I’m thinking about stories and projects to cover in 2019. My list has an obvious and overriding theme: Canada’s federal election, scheduled for Oct. 21.
Looking back at the last one, I was quickly reminded of the perils of predictions when it comes to votes in Canada. At this time in 2015, few experts, if any, were predicting that Justin Trudeau would emerge as prime minister, let alone that his Liberals would hold a majority government. Indeed, by early summer that year, polling stories widely forecast that the New Democrats under Tom Mulcair would take power.
In the end, of course, the New Democrats crashed. Mr. Mulcair has since left politics and his successor, Jagmeet Singh, is campaigning to win a seat in Parliament in a by-election likely to be held in February.
Mr. Trudeau’s unexpected rise to power is thought to have come from last-minute swings in voter preferences, rather than problems with polling, although there were certainly some of those.
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When I spoke this week with Frank Graves, the president of the polling firm EKOS Research, he certainly wasn’t inclined to make any specific predictions for October.
“Anyone who knows what’s going to happen in 2019 is much smarter than I am,” Mr. Graves said. “It’s going to be a brawl. It isn’t going to be pretty.”
With the usual warning that the current situation may not apply by the fall, here’s a quick overview of the state of play for the three main parties:
• Leadership: Only Mr. Trudeau and Elizabeth May of the Green Party will be repeat performers from 2015 as party leaders. Several polls suggest that many voters still don’t know much about Andrew Scheer, the former speaker of the House of Commons who now leads the Conservatives.
Mr. Singh, a former Ontario provincial politician, also needs to define himself for a national audience. The wild card is Maxime Bernier, the libertarian former cabinet minister who has left the Conservatives to create the People’s Party of Canada.
• Money: Unlike in American elections, Canada’s laws make votes here comparatively low-budget affairs. But donations are still the fuel of campaigns. The last fund-raising reports from the parties show that the Conservative machine remains well oiled, pulling in 4.8 million Canadian dollars in the quarter ending in September. The Liberals raised 3.8 million dollars. Both of those results are relatively consistent with the recent past. But the New Democrats have fallen hard, with well under one million dollars over the same time period.
• Issues: Forecasting key election issues, like results, can be fraught. But unlike in 2015, Mr. Trudeau is unlikely to wander around the country making promise after promise. Many of his earlier vows remain unfulfilled or works in progress, and a handful were abandoned, notably a promise to reform how we elect members of Parliament. But he can point to a number of achievements, including middle-income tax cuts and the legalization of medically assisted deaths and recreational marijuana. And while Mr. Trudeau’s attempts to develop a relationship with President Trump came to a bitter end, a new Nafta was nevertheless struck.
Mr. Scheer, along with the leaders of four Canadian provinces, is already campaigning against Mr. Trudeau’s plan to impose carbon taxes on provinces that won’t do it by themselves. His alternative program for reducing carbon emissions has still to be unveiled.
Mr. Graves said that his polling found that core Conservative supporters want to see tighter immigration limits and are particularly upset by asylum seekers crossing the border on foot from the United States. Mr. Bernier’s platform is clearly playing to that concern, while the Conservative appeal to anti-immigration voters has been less explicit.
As in the United States, one thing has become clear to Mr. Graves in his polling: “On many major issues, there is very little common ground.” If that trend continues, you can count on similarly polarized campaigns in Canada this year.
—In British Columbia, a growing industry caters to pregnant women, mainly from China, who come to Canada to give birth so that their children will become Canadian citizens. While in Vancouver, my colleague Dan Bilefsky found a rising backlash against “birth tourism.”
—The critic William Logan found that a newly released collection of Leonard Cohen’s poems, notebooks, lyrics and drawings “has a little of everything for Cohen fans and nothing for anyone else.”
—A middle-aged woman in Toronto suddenly developed blurry vision. Some doctors thought it was age-related. Others suggested that it was tied to stress. A neurologist finally linked it to a rare condition that has puzzled physicians for centuries.
—After traveling to 52 places, including Saskatoon, in just a year, Jada Yuan is finally unpacking her bags.
—Toronto is not the only place where people are leery about smart cities technology.
—Bob Einstein, the comedian who recorded his adventures in the role of the hapless daredevil Super Dave Osborne in Canada, died this week.
—After almost a year, and unexpectedly, the victory tour continues for the curling team that defeated Canada and Sweden to become the first American squad with an Olympic gold medal.B:
【不】【用】【瞎】【想】，【先】【跑】【了】【再】【说】。 【李】【国】【杰】【几】【人】【连】【夜】【跑】【路】。【好】【在】【离】【盘】【丝】【洞】【不】【远】【就】【有】【一】【个】【小】【镇】，【众】【人】【来】【到】【镇】【子】【落】【脚】。 【玉】【面】【公】【主】【差】【点】【坑】【了】【李】【国】【杰】【一】【把】，【李】【国】【杰】【也】【就】【不】【客】【气】【了】。【他】【拿】【出】【玉】【面】【公】【主】【和】【她】【父】【亲】【的】【内】【丹】【送】【给】【春】【三】【十】【娘】，【给】【她】【疗】【伤】【恢】【复】【法】【力】。 “【真】【的】【给】【我】！？”【春】【三】【十】【娘】【有】【些】【惊】【异】。【要】【知】【道】，【妖】【怪】【的】【内】【丹】【可】【不】【简】【单】，【包】
【一】【只】【黑】【熊】【在】【你】【的】【面】【前】， 【不】【还】【手】【的】【时】【候】，【苏】【樱】【还】【真】【的】【就】【下】【不】【了】【杀】【意】。 【妖】【比】【凡】【人】【的】【内】【心】【要】【简】【单】【的】【多】【了】， 【他】【们】【的】【喜】【怒】【哀】【乐】【都】【直】【接】【表】【现】【在】【自】【己】【的】【脸】【上】。 【苏】【樱】【停】【了】【自】【己】【的】【木】【灵】【力】。 【四】【周】【的】【片】【片】【叶】【子】【也】【随】【之】【静】【止】【了】【下】【来】。 【临】【渊】【还】【想】【来】【一】【场】【英】【雄】【救】【美】【的】【戏】【码】【的】， 【可】【是】【到】【了】【现】【场】【才】【发】【现】。 【他】【的】【喜】【欢】【的】【女】香港内部透特是真的吗【这】【边】【唐】【馨】【月】【在】【看】【戏】，【那】【儿】【就】【感】【受】【有】【人】【在】【拉】【自】【己】【衣】【服】，【回】【头】【一】【看】，【正】【瞅】【见】【馨】【月】【馨】【月】【公】【主】【一】【脸】【不】【幸】【兮】【兮】【的】【望】【着】【自】【己】，【耸】【拉】【着】【一】【张】【小】【脸】【说】： “【馨】【月】【姐】【姐】，【我】【想】【骑】【狮】【子】【骢】。” 【神】【特】【么】……【我】【给】【你】【骑】【行】【不】【行】？ 【唐】【馨】【月】【看】【着】【当】【前】【馨】【月】【馨】【月】【公】【主】【殷】【切】【有】【望】【的】【眼】【神】，【本】【来】【想】【要】【一】【口】【拒】【绝】【的】【话】，【也】【憋】【在】【嘴】【巴】【边】【上】【出】【不】【来】【了】，【想】【来】